ALTCOINS TO BOTTOM BEFORE SUMMER BULL RUN 

According to market analysts, the altcoin sector may reach its local bottom in early summer, setting the stage for a subsequent bull run. This expectation hinges largely on Bitcoin’s price movements, as outlined by principal research analyst at Nansen, Aurelie Barthere.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital, in a May 8 post on X, indicated that the altcoin market is poised to hit its local bottom by early June, aligning with previous patterns observed around significant Bitcoin events such as the BTC Halving. Rekt Capital noted, “Altcoins are tracking as expected. They bottomed in early February, sold off around the BTC Halving, and are expected to bottom again early this summer.”

During the past month, altcoins have suffered significant losses, with the market cap of smaller altcoins (excluding the top ten) decreasing by over 21% to $265 billion, as per data from TradingView.

Despite this downturn, the year-to-date figures are more encouraging, with the altcoin market cap recording a 24% increase, and an impressive 167% gain over the past year.

Alex Onufriychuk, a blockchain advisor and coach at Qubic Labs Accelerator, also commented on the situation to Cointelegraph, suggesting that subdued market sentiment and reduced inflows from U.S. and Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs might prolong the consolidation period, potentially leading to a local bottom by June.

Barthere emphasized that a genuine altcoin bull cycle would require a significant uptick in Bitcoin’s price. She explained that altcoins typically thrive in a bullish environment and noted the current market sentiment has been less enthusiastic since mid-March. “As Bitcoin continues to hover around the 20-day exponential moving average, altcoins experience more volatility. We need a clear breakout in Bitcoin’s price for altcoins to really start outperforming.”

Despite the potential for a local bottom in June, Barthere cautioned that this doesn’t necessarily guarantee an immediate altcoin rally. Substantial shifts in retail and institutional investment strategies, along with favorable regulatory changes, are crucial for a sustained upward trend in the altcoin market.

Technical indicators on the monthly charts show promising signs, with 10 out of 12 moving averages currently suggesting a buy signal for leading altcoins like Ether, which has recently faced challenges.

Further influencing the altcoin market is the positive year-over-year change in the M2 money supply, marking the first such increase since November 2023. This growth in the money supply could lead to increased investments in altcoins and memecoins, potentially heralding the start of an altcoin season (“altszn”).

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