ANALYST: FED RATE CUTS CRUCIAL TO UNDERSTANDING BITCOIN’S CYCLES 

An analyst points to potential Fed rate adjustments as pivotal in understanding Bitcoin’s pattern of movement, which is traditionally linked to its halving occurrences. The CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, Benjamin Cowen, recently speculated on the current Bitcoin cycle’s nature, suggesting it might be experiencing an early peak, a phenomenon known as “left-translated.”

Bitcoin has set a new record high, with the next halving just around the corner, raising the question of whether this cycle’s peak might arrive sooner than those in the past, which typically occurred a year after a halving.

The Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Decisions

The reaction of the Bitcoin market to future Federal Reserve rate reductions could align it with historical cycles, possibly peaking in 2025. However, the absence of a significant pullback could indicate an early cycle peak.

The Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at 5.5% in its last meeting on March 20, leading to immediate market fluctuations. With its upcoming meeting scheduled for May, a vast majority anticipate rates will remain steady, based on the CME FedWatch Tool.

Cowen drew parallels between the price movements of 2013 and 2021, noting similar patterns that could hint at a left-translated cycle for the current period. He posited that a correction following rate cuts, without a new manic phase in Q4, could set the stage for a traditional peak in the year after the halving.

Cowen analyzed the returns of the current cycle against those following halving years, suggesting that an early peak this year could mirror those periods’ returns.

He predicted the market might cool off after April, with the latter part of the year sparking debates on whether a resurgence will occur in Q4 or if the market will wait until 2025 for significant movements.

Comparative Analysis of Market Cycles

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, also compared the current market status with previous cycles. It found that, in terms of both duration and distance from the April 2021 peak, the market closely resembles its position in December 2020, relative to the 2018-21 cycle.

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