BITCOIN FACES RISK AHEAD OF FED RATE DECISION 

This upcoming week marks a significant moment for the US economy as the Federal Reserve is set to make its decision on interest rates, which raises questions about Bitcoin’s potential response.

“The moment we’ve all been eagerly anticipating, Fed week, has arrived,” announced The Kobeissi Letter on March 17.

The announcement from the US Federal Reserve, expected on March 20, is likely to influence the economic forecast for the country moving ahead.

Important Happenings This Week:

  1. Release of Housing Starts data – Tuesday
  2. Announcement of the Fed’s decision on interest rates – Wednesday
  3. Press conference by the Fed – Wednesday
  4. Release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday
  5. Release of Existing Home Sales data – Thursday
  6. Speech by Fed Chair Powell – Friday
  7. Rate Cut Prospects Dim

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange data suggests there’s a 99% chance the Fed will leave interest rates as they are.

For the first time in 2024, projections have shifted to only three potential interest rate reductions, according to Kobeissi, highlighting that the likelihood of a cut in rates this week is under 2%, with the possibility in May dropping to about 7%.

Initially, up to seven rate reductions were anticipated for 2024 just a quarter ago, with Kobeissi now remarking:

“With inflation figures on the rise again, even three rate cuts seem overly hopeful.”

Currently, US interest rates stand at 5.5%, unchanged since July 2023, as efforts continue to manage inflation.

This week, not just the US, but also Australia, the UK, Japan, and others will announce their interest rate decisions, which is expected to bring about market fluctuations.

Bitcoin’s Precarious Position?

The enthusiasm for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has been boosted by the introduction of spot ETFs in the US, driven by institutional interest. Yet, with daily ETF contributions declining, the excitement may be diminishing as we approach the halving.

On March 17, cryptocurrency analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ suggested that Bitcoin is on the verge of entering a “Danger Zone” this week, traditionally marking the start of pre-halving dips.

Historically, these declines have occurred between two to four weeks prior to the halving. In 2020, Bitcoin saw a drop of -20%, and in 2016, a -40% fall, according to his analysis.

As of this writing, Bitcoin has already decreased by 7.7% from its March 14 peak of $73,738, currently valued at $68,600.

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