Analysts are noting that the window before the Bitcoin halving, historically marked by market corrections, is closing.
Historically, Bitcoin market price movements have followed similar patterns in the lead-up to the four-year halving event. Typically, there’s a mid-cycle peak, followed by a pullback of up to 30% before the halving ushers in the next bull cycle.
Crypto analyst “Rekt Capital” recently commented that the pre-halving period, during which pullbacks tend to occur, is ending in two weeks. The upcoming halving is expected to take place around April 22.
A similar pre-halving retracement occurred in early 2020 when Bitcoin was trading at around $9,500. However, this cycle is unlikely to see a repeat of the pandemic-induced black swan event that occurred in March 2020.
While some analysts had predicted a correction to the $34,000 to $36,000 range as ETF hype dwindled, Bitcoin only remained below $40,000 for a few days last week.
The analyst also outlined five phases of the Bitcoin halving, including a pre-halving period of 126 days, followed by a 63-day pre-halving rally, a 77-day pre-halving retracement (the current phase), a 147-day accumulation period, and finally, a parabolic uptrend that can last a year.
Various price predictions for Bitcoin after the halving have been made, with some, like SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, suggesting a target of $170,000.
Despite the recent price fluctuations, some, like Dragonfly managing partner ‘Haseeb,’ believe that retail investors have yet to fully enter the market, as indicated by the lower popularity of the Coinbase app compared to previous cycles.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $43,422, up 3% on the day, and it recently reached an intraday high of $43,730. It has seen a 9% increase since its post-ETF launch dip below $39,000 and is approaching resistance around $44,000.