Standard Chartered Bank’s digital assets research head, Geoff Kendrick, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will rise significantly after the halving, spurred by a reduction in leveraged positions within the market.
In an interview with BNN Bloomberg, Kendrick expressed optimism that the current market conditions, characterized by lower leverage, are set to drive BTC’s value towards Standard Chartered’s year-end projection of $150,000.
Deleveraging in the Crypto Market
The period just before the Bitcoin halving saw the crypto market experience a significant amount of liquidations due to escalated tensions in the Middle East, which sent BTC tumbling down from $71,000 to $61,000 in just one day. This event led to the liquidation of over $1.8 billion worth of trades, affecting more than 300,000 traders, with April 13 witnessing the most substantial single-day liquidation since October 2023.
Kendrick pointed out that this mass liquidation of leveraged positions has created an opportunity for the market to ascend from its current levels. With the market having deleveraged significantly going into the halving, there is potential for a robust recovery and growth.
Growth Driven by ETF Inflows and Geopolitical Developments
Further supporting the potential uptick in BTC, Kendrick highlighted the role of inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and positive developments in geopolitical situations, such as between Iran and Israel, as key factors that could drive Bitcoin prices upward.
Despite a temporary pause in ETF inflows, Kendrick is optimistic about substantial future capital injections into the market, estimating inflows of $50-$100 billion in the next 18 to 24 months as the market continues to mature. Drawing parallels with the gold market, he anticipates that the Bitcoin ETF sector could expand by 4.3 times with sustained inflows, potentially pushing Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2024 and $200,000 by 2025.
Moreover, Standard Chartered has forecasted that Bitcoin could achieve a price of $250,000 by 2025, should ETF inflows hit a mid-point estimate of $75 billion.