Following a 23% correction, Bitcoin might have entered a post-halving reaccumulation phase, according to an analyst citing historical data.
On May 13, crypto market analyst “Rekt Capital” updated his Bitcoin market cycle chart, indicating that the post-halving “danger zone” has ended. Bitcoin has bounced back from the reaccumulation range low support.
Historically, pre- and post-halving “danger zones” have occurred in previous market cycles, characterized by asset retreats around these events. In this cycle, BTC dropped 23% from its mid-March peak to $56,800 by May 1, potentially marking the bottom of the post-halving danger zone.
The analyst noted that if $56,000 was indeed the bottom, the current pullback lasted 47 days, shorter than the longest retrace of 63 days in this cycle. Bitcoin has now recovered to trade above $63,000, supporting the reaccumulation zone analysis.
However, historical cycles don’t guarantee future movements, and further pullbacks during the post-halving period are possible. The analyst remains confident that current support levels will hold, noting early signs of reduced sell-side momentum and the potential for Bitcoin to rise back to $68,000 if the $60,000 support remains intact.
Meanwhile, Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal shared on May 13 that the “Macro Summer and Fall” driven by global liquidity cycles could benefit crypto, terming the latter half of the year a “banana zone” for high-risk asset surges.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes also expects a period of sideways trading and accumulation before a market uptick later in 2024, citing potential liquidity injections from Federal Reserve policies.
Despite varying views, these analyses reflect cautious optimism for Bitcoin’s market behavior post-halving, with potential for both short-term movements and longer-term accumulation phases.