Fred Thiel, the CEO of Marathon, the largest cryptocurrency mining operation in the United States, has indicated that he doesn’t anticipate significant price fluctuations for Bitcoin around or subsequent to the upcoming halving event. Thiel attributes the lack of expected rally post-halving to the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which he believes has already catalyzed a surge in market capitalization that would traditionally occur after such events.
During an April 9 interview with Bloomberg, Thiel commented, “The success of the ETF approval has drawn capital into the market earlier than expected, essentially advancing the price growth usually observed three to six months following a halving,” suggesting that the anticipated demand has already been partially met.
Halving Dynamics and Mining Operations
The halving, according to Thiel, will diminish the daily Bitcoin supply by approximately 450 coins, which could marginally influence its price. He also shared that the current market conditions, where prices have ascended prior to the halving contrary to previous cycles, are particularly favorable for miners, including Marathon, as they capitalize on elevated prices before the supply cut.
Thiel disclosed that Marathon’s operations would need Bitcoin prices to maintain at least $46,000 each to stay profitable post-halving. Additionally, Bitcoin mining analyst Jaran Mellerud forecasts a steady hash rate post-halving, suggesting a mere pause in its consistent upward trend rather than a decline.
Mellerud also anticipates a bull market following this halving, driven primarily by increasing demand rather than the slight reduction in supply. Contrarily, Bitfinex has projected a bullish surge post-halving, potentially pushing Bitcoin prices to $150,000.
Current Bitcoin Market Trends
In the four months leading to the halving, scheduled around April 20, Bitcoin has seen a 65% increase in value. However, since early March, Bitcoin’s price has hovered in the high $60,000 range, displaying a tight trading pattern without significant corrections or breakouts.
Oliver Isaacs, an investor and analyst, highlighted that the quantity of Bitcoin held on exchanges is at its lowest in six years, indicating a scarcity that could impact its value. Additionally, various countries are reportedly moving towards the introduction of Bitcoin ETPs.
At the moment of reporting, Bitcoin’s value stood at $69,200, following a 3% decrease over the day, suggesting that the cryptocurrency continues to trade within a relatively stable range.