In the realm of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) were to reject a spot Bitcoin ETF this month, it would likely be due to needing more time, rather than an outright rejection.

Balchunas, speaking with Cointelegraph, maintains a 90% likelihood of approval by January 10. He notes that the 10% chance of non-approval encompasses both a delay and a potential outright denial.

“The primary reason we haven’t raised the odds above 90% is the possibility that the SEC might want more time to deliberate,” Balchunas explained. He added, “It’s improbable for an outright denial to occur at the last minute, considering the extensive work and effort invested by both the SEC and ETF issuers in this process. Such a move would be the ‘rug pull of the decade.'”

Vetle Lunde, an analyst at crypto research firm K33 Research, echoes a similar sentiment but places the odds of rejection at a mere 5%, according to a January 2 market report.

Balchunas further speculated that if the SEC were to issue a denial, it could prompt fund issuers to pursue legal action against the regulator, similar to what Grayscale, a crypto asset manager, has done. “Given the significant investment and efforts made, I doubt there would be any cooling-off period this time. If a denial happens, expect immediate and strong pushback,” he said.

Public comments on the SEC’s request for feedback on the filings continue to pour in. Two recent submissions on January 2 urged the regulator to reject the ETF proposals outright.

One of the latest comments to the SEC expressed concerns about Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and its potential to bypass traditional financial systems. The comment noted that this could make Bitcoin appealing to authoritarian regimes seeking to evade sanctions and exert more control over their citizens.

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