Bitcoin’s price has been trending towards the $40,000 mark, with bears currently in control, leading to discussions about the potential continuation of the correction. In the past seven days, Bitcoin has experienced a 4.4% decline and is down approximately 16% from its January 11th high of $48,500. Here, we explore some of the potential reasons behind this recent decline and consider a couple of catalysts that could positively impact Bitcoin in the near future.
Underwhelming Bitcoin ETF Launch
The approval of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) marked a significant milestone. However, the launch faced challenges, including a compromised SEC Twitter account that falsely announced approval, causing market turmoil and liquidation of leveraged positions. Additionally, the official announcement was taken down due to its release during trading hours. Despite the initial excitement, the ETF launch may have led to a “sell-the-news” scenario, contributing to the ongoing selling pressure on Bitcoin as it approaches $40,000.
Overheated Crypto Markets
The cryptocurrency markets experienced a prolonged period of upward trends without significant corrections, largely driven by anticipation of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval. Bitcoin’s price surged from around $26,000 in October to a high of $48,500 in January, representing an 86% increase with minimal corrections. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index consistently showed signs of an overheated market, with periods of “Greed” and “Extreme Greed.” However, on January 15th, it dropped to “Neutral” for the first time in three months. An overheated market may have contributed to the recent decline.
Looking Ahead
It remains uncertain when the bulls will regain control of the market. However, a significant event on the horizon is the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April. During the halving, block rewards will be reduced by half, decreasing the supply of newly-minted BTC and halving pre-programmed inflation. Historically, such events have preceded major bull markets, leading many analysts to believe that this cycle will follow a similar pattern. The Bitcoin halving could potentially serve as a catalyst for a bullish resurgence in the cryptocurrency market.