WILL $1.5B IN BTC OPTIONS EXPIRY TODAY PUSH BITCOIN TO ATH?

As the week concludes, the Bitcoin market faces another significant options expiry, with an estimated 21,000 contracts set to expire today, totaling approximately $1.5 billion in notional value, slightly above the previous week’s figures.

Stability in Crypto Markets

The cryptocurrency markets have shown relative stability this week, with the total market capitalization maintaining just above $2.7 trillion, and Bitcoin playing a pivotal role in market dynamics.

Expiry of Bitcoin Options

Today’s expiring Bitcoin options show a put/call ratio of 0.62, indicating nearly double the number of call (long) positions compared to puts (shorts). The max pain price, where the most losses occur at expiry, is currently set at $69,000, which is slightly below the current spot prices.

Currently, bullish sentiment prevails in the derivatives market, particularly evident with significant open interest at the $70,000, $80,000, and $100,000 strike levels. Deribit reports substantial open interest amounts of $880 million and $934 million at the $80,000 and $100,000 strikes, respectively.

Volatility and Market Trends

According to the crypto derivatives analytics firm Greeks Live, volatility has noticeably increased this week, with both $70,000 for Bitcoin and $3,500 for Ethereum contracts being strongly contested. The firm noted a significant drop in implied volatility across all terms, with selling calls being the predominant trading strategy this month. Furthermore, it mentioned that expectations surrounding the upcoming halving might have been overstated.

Also expiring today are 230,000 Ethereum options, holding a notional value of $800 million, a put/call ratio of 0.49, and a max pain point set at $3,425.

Greeks Live suggests that despite a downturn in sentiment and ETF inflows, the anticipation of Bitcoin’s halving could provide short-term support.

Current State of Crypto Markets

The cryptocurrency markets are currently stable, with the total capitalization recorded at $2.74 trillion. Bitcoin has managed to stay above the $70,000 mark following a temporary drop below it on April 11, trading at $70,900 in the Asian session this Friday. It remains only 4.2% shy of its all-time high.

Ethereum has seen a slight decrease today, down 1.3%, trading at $3,522. Meanwhile, the altcoin market shows a mix of minor losses and gains among the higher-capacity tokens.

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